democratization of visualization and design

[glorybound]

CGarchitect's Jeff Mottle discusses upcoming changes in the visualization business that he predicts will take place in the next few years and how they may affect current CG imaging practices and jobs. "Visualization in most cases will not be the realm of specialists like it is now, but in the hands of all (...) how you decide to act on that knowledge will mean the success [or] failure of many in our business." More on CGarchitect. (Note: look for the section titled "Big Changes Ahead").

http://www.maxunderground.com/archiv...nd_design.html

[tammo]

I don’t agree with the author.
Of course 3d software will get easier to use.
But that doesn’t mean everyone is suddenly a 3d-artist.

That’s like saying everybody has a laptop and Gimp,
so why do we need any graphic-designers?

[andybot_cg]

totally agree tammo. If you have a poorly done 3D model (or heaven forbid one from Revit), and lousy materials, and no sense of lighting, it doesn't matter how good your rendering software is.

Really, visualization has been "in the hands of all" for a long time, and there are still plenty of specialists doing great work. And a lot of non-specialists doing sub-par work.

[plastic_]

I guess it will be like photography. Now everybody is a photographer because the tools are cheap and accessible.
There is still place for pro-photographers, but it's not like it used to be, the cake is much smaller and the demands are much higher.
It will be harder for sure.

[tammo]

Photography is a special case because the basics are a lot simpler then 3d work.
No matter how easy to use a 3d software will be,
In addition to placing lights and camera you have to create something in 3 dimensions and maybe even animate it.

Commercial 3d software has been in development for twenty years now and it's still so complex that artists working in medium or large studios specialize in small aspects of it, like particle effects or character rigging.
I don't think this will change in just a few more years.

[Javadevil]

I think Jeff Mottle has nailed it, you might say that you need to be an artist to produce high quality professional renderings,
which is true, Jeff did say that top end of the spectrum the top 10% will always survive, its rest, the 90% that will struggle.
Theres lots of companies that don't need the really high quality work, but outsource the work because its to expensive to render in house.
When cloud rendering becomes standard they won't have to worry about high costs of setting up render farms.
I know theres lots of render farms out there now, but when it becomes standard.
I see rendering becoming really easy even to generate specific looks, different moods, camera compositions, different lighting setups.
When rendering becomes realtime, tweaking looks becomes a hell of a lot easier, architects, designers, drafters, etc will be able to produce something reasonable.

[glorybound]

I have been hearing about the end to architectural renderings for 2 decades. The reason I switched to computer renderings, from hand renderings, is because the death of hand renderings were eminent. Now, I see the hand renderings making a comeback within a decade. i have been studying for awhile, and have a room full of supplies, so I am ready

[Neilg]

I mean, he opens with 'Many of us are experts', which I really don't agree with. A very small portion of people are experts - most studios get by on a collaborative effort, pooling the skills of everyone there and continually sharing knowledge on a daily basis.

We've got a long way to go before the standard is even consistent across the industry, let alone easy enough for the laymen to stumble towards. The hardware has been there for bedroom users to make good work for a very long time - It's the only reason I ended up finding this job 8 years ago. Someone in their bedroom on their own is going to have no easier time in 5 years than they do now, they'll just be able to render to a higher resolution. Maybe it will seem that way because more people start doing it.

Really don't believe the technical barrier for entry getting lowered is going to make a significant difference at all, but even if it did we'd welcome it with open arms - lord knows its hard enough to hire good people as it is.


edit:

That's the point really. Only 10-20% of all arch viz is done at the high end where you see things like animation, green screen etc. The power of this democratization is that the other 80-90% of the visualizations that are being done by more specialized people will move into the hands of those who do the design.

Actually I do agree with him now. I think this has already happened though - see bobbys thread about the awful render. Some projects don't need selling with a good image, they sell with bullet points and figures alone.