"CG industry continues to struggle"

[glorybound]

There are probably regional trends, as long as industry trends. I agree that mediocre work will not survive, at least not as a freelancer. You can get mediocre out of most of the native software for free.

[crazy homeless guy]

...living for average viz artists in the future

Don't be average and you won't have a problem making a living.

[Nicinus]

Don't be average and you won't have a problem making a living.

That's a good point. However, my point was that I'm pretty sure the bulk of the 3ds Max arch viz market is pretty average when it comes to be able to make a living the future, mostly because high end work takes both top skills and clients with funds. Ironically I think most 3ds Max users produce good stuff, as just learning Max and Vray sorts out weed, but seen in a big picture this becomes average. I don't know how long time people like Bertrand Benoit, Peter Guthrie, Neilg, etc. spend on their pictures but you have to have a client base to fund it or there is no economy in it.

If only the high end studios survive Autodesk will sell fewer Max to this segment, which means Max will either have to become more expensive or shifting its focus towards other revenue streams such as games.

[Nicinus]

I don't know. We have this conversation every year and all it does is puts fear into people.

Fear aside, there are now actual products out there that produce very convincing results in real time without requiring any skills.

Many times the architect provides a rendering, but they are nowhere near the quality it would take to sell the property; most are SU renderings. If you are doing average work, then I think you'll have problem, but if you are doing stellar work, you'll be fine. This past year I have had a dozen projects come to me because the person they were using isn't doing anything special and it isn't setting their product above the rest, which is what they are looking for.

This I agree with, developers and real estate firms have to hire to render. However, a lot of the current work where architects wants a rendering of their Revit project is about to dry up with real time solutions like Enscape, Fuzor, and whatever Autodesk is cooking up. In many cases these renderings will be enough for the realtor as well, especially if it saves $1,500, which means the market will shrink.

I am seeing a trend of architects ditching the computer and going back to paper. I guess the price of software is sinking them, so they are just pulling the plug.

No way, this is just insane. If anything architects need more and more advanced software as building codes are getting tougher and tougher. In 2020 California will go net zero and energy analysis will be a big part of the equation of building houses. Building a modern house is becoming so advanced that most cities require architect/engineers stamp the drawings.

[glorybound]

I am talking residential work. You don't need to be a licensed architect and usually, it is a 1-2 person firm, or the builder has a designer on staff.

[Nicinus]

I am talking residential work. You don't need to be a licensed architect and usually, it is a 1-2 person firm, or the builder has a designer on staff.

I am as well.