Wow, James, you’re as good an interlocutor as i have ever found.
Why the hell did i not have you as artist in the movies i TDed? 
Are you saying if you know what the SPP is in advance, you can accurately predict render time regardless of a pixel’s content?
I know this sounds VERY counter intuitive, and it’s because your intuition is actually right.
It’s right, in that no, NORMALLY, a pixel could be taking, for a given amount of sampling done to it, anything from a little time to forever or thereabout.
There OUGHT to be no way to accurately predict how long a render will take, when the sampling isn’t fixed, and the scene contents, and shader and light settings, are unknown.
And this is why i am severely limiting stuff like glossy bounces, for instance.
A bit of VERY SIMPLE math may help.
Let’s say that a glossy reflection has 8 subdivisions, or 64 SPP.
If the glossy was allowed to bounce off itself (ie. double mirror scenario) five times, without adaptivity at all, the pixel which sees the fifth bounce would have to trace 64^5 rays.
That’d be around one BILLION rays for that pixel alone.
That’s why we ought to thank Vlado twice a day for the adaptive engine, by the way.
My approach, however, TRIES to do without the adaptivity wherever possible, but of course the risk of hitting infinte rendertimes is very high, that way.
Hence the limiting of glossies: regardless of the amount of glossiness, of what is reflected into it, a 2 bounce, 8 subdivs shader will only ever trace 4096 rays (8^2)^2.
So, in the worst case scenario, if you had a fully covered image with a 2 glossies bounce shader, the render (of the glossy effect) will ALWAYS take as much as the image size requires, regardless of anything else.
Of course, a real scene is often a LOT more complex than that, and that is why, even in the best of cases, it’s a seriously, seriously bad idea to do without adaptivity at all (well, some OTHER renderer does precisely that. and the results do speak for themselves, lol.).
The example above holds for pretty much all the effects (maybe not for raytraced, physical SSS, due to the nature of the beast, but it may soon. err, i never wrote this!).
Secondly, are you balancing the SPP of each effect or just whatever figure brings about a clean pass for each effect?
When not using a fixed AA (4/4 or 8/8 for example) the SPP figures have a range based on adaptivity obviously, so should I be aiming for 512SPP as a minimum or maximum for each ‘effect’ or is this just all part of the game (as above)?
Now, as to which exact value of subdivs for a given glossy amount (let’s stick with the one example) will give you clear results is practically impossible to know BEFORE the rendering starts: it’s down to the glossiness amount, of course, but also to the chance of multiple glossy bounces (glossy shader reflecting another glossy shader, reflecting another glossy shader, for a 3 bounce max), and to the distance of reflected objects (in that if an object is close, for a given gloss amount, it will be sharper and require less samples to clean up than a farther object will).
Same applies to lights, GI (interior versus exterior is the most glaring case), and so on.
However, i have never seen any scene needing more than 2048 SPP to clean ANY solid-surface or shadow effect.
Feel free to find out which balance of SPP versus noise amount is good for you.
I am actually working with someone else to develop a few ideas i have had in mind for a year, now, to implement pre-render heuristics that would take care of just that: automagic sampling for lights, glossies and such, but there is absolutely no guarantee it will ever work, in principle or practice.
I’ll know when we’ll start laying down the prototype (the math, taking care of worst-case scenarios, seems sound, but hey, i’m NOT a Vlado which speaks Italian, so take all this with two pinches of salt).
Ultimately, the script tends to err on the safe side, letting adaptivity decide when it’s right to stop tracing, with values based on extensive testing (of which i’ll need a wee bit more, as you’ve seen with the script updates) and empirical results.
So, how, you asked, can i know in advance if how long a render will take?
If you got the bolded sentence above right, you’ll understand by now that rendering a quick preview with a given (lowish) sampling amount will provide for the correlation you need to know how long the final render will take.
If one which had 128 SPP to begin with and two glossy bounces took 1 hour, one with 256SPP will take roughly twice (with an adaptivity of 0.5, counting on the second bounce being sampled a bit less as less “important”) or exactly four times with an adaptivity of 0 (as then it’s 128*128 vs. 256*256 for the second bounce).
I suppose this is just about the lay of the land, as far as my reasoning behind the script.
On a side note: I think the operation you’ve got going with the VFB is sort of dangerous. It seems to be doing some scary things with my VFB history under certain circumstances. Any chance you can include a button in your script to turn that feature off?
For what regards the VFB, if you could be more specific as to which odd behaviour it shows with your history (which HAS to be enabled and with enough disk space to save the current VFB image in vrimg format), i may try and correct it.
Of course, the checkbox will be coming with the next script update regardless(i’m currently busy testing some other stuff, but will get to it this evening, i hope).
One question I would like to ask with the ArchViz preset is about AA min/max. Your default settings of 2/4; why have you chosen these? In particular the minimum of 2? Would you recommend I find the min max AA settings that clean up my Alpha and texture edges and stick with those or do your settings play an integral role in the scripts basic workings?
The archviz preset with a 2-4 may well be an error on my part. i thought i left it at 4-4, as you can very well tell 4 rays per pixel will NOT give you nice, clean alpha edges.
I’ll look into it as well, and update it.
On the other hand, i hold no truth whatsoever: you are not only free, but very much encouraged to find what combination of values floats your boat for a particular scenario.
And maybe then to let me know, eheh XD